Friday, October 10, 2008

Al Qaeda 3.0

This was the title of a seminar held today in Washington,DC.

By day's end, I don't know that attendees had learned much that could be called "new." But I was struck by the general consensus on three points:

(1) al Qaeda has not given up on attempting another "spectacular" attack against Americans on American soil;

(2) it does not have the physical presence or the psychological position to execute even a limited operation in the next two to three years; and

(3) the time-frame al Qaeda "central" requires to recruit, train, and put in place the people and materiel for a well-planned major terror incident in the U.S. is about 15 years, and we have gone nearly half that span of years since 9/11.

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